Estimate downside risk from defect profile and confidence.
Grading Submission Risk Calculator
Sending cards for grading isn't just about maximizing profit—it's also about managing downside risk. This risk calculator helps you evaluate your defect profile, grade likelihood, and associated costs so you can make informed decisions before submitting.
Key Inputs
To assess the risk of a submission, you need to gather specific metrics about your card's condition and the current market.
- Current Raw Value: The amount you could reliably sell the card for today without grading it.
- Expected Graded Value: The market value of the card at your realistically expected grade.
- Fall-back Graded Value: The market value if the card grades one point lower than your expectation.
- Total Grading Cost: All fees, including the tier price, shipping, and insurance.
The Risk Formula
Risk Score = (Total Grading Cost + Raw Value) - Fall-back Graded Value
This formula calculates your maximum downside. If the Risk Score is positive, it means that a lower-than-expected grade will result in a net financial loss compared to selling raw.
Worked Examples
Let's evaluate a popular modern hit card:
- Raw Value: $100
- Total Grading Cost: $30
- Expected PSA 10 Value: $300
- Fall-back PSA 9 Value: $80
If the card gets a 9, your total investment is $130, but you only recover $80. This represents a $50 loss compared to just selling it raw. The downside risk is significant if your confidence in achieving a 10 is low.
FAQ
How do I measure my confidence level?
Confidence is built by strictly assessing centering, surface, edges, and corners against known standards, preferably with the help of pre-grading tools or expert opinions.
What if the fall-back value is still profitable?
If your card is profitable even at a lower grade, it is considered a "no-brainer" submission with extremely low downside risk.
Take action
Evaluate your candidates mathematically before submitting to ensure positive ROI.